PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) TERHADAP KINERJA REKSADANA DENGAN PERMODELAN REGRESI DATA PANEL

Abstract

Correlation analysis is used to observe the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable, while the regression analysis is used to determine the shape of the relationship between the variables, and also for predicting or forecasting. The correlation meant in this study is the correlation between inflation, interest rates, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the performance of mutual fund products; while the regression model meant in this case is the regression model between inflation, interest rates and stock index mutual fund product performance of some companies Investment Management (Fund Manager) in Indonesia.If the objects considered were some of the company's Investment Management in Indonesia in particular years, the data is called the cross section data. If the objects considered was time, such as: the inflation data, interest rate and stock index products as well as the performance of mutual funds in Indonesia in recent years, the data is called the time series data. The combination of both, i.e. some company product managing Investment Management Mutual Funds in Indonesia in recent years, e.g. from 2007 to 2014, it is called panel data (pooled data).This study was aimed to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates and stock index against the performance of mutual funds with panel data; as well as to determine the best regression model of panel data that describes a linear relationship between inflation, interest rates and stock index with the performance of mutual funds, in order to obtain an overview of behavior and performance of mutual funds as a long-term investment instruments.Best regression model is determined by comparing the panel data regression model obtained in this study with empirical data (data observed in the field). Based on the best panel data regression model  and observing the influencing factors as well as the most factors influencing the performance of mutual funds, an analysis can be carried out to find an alternative type of investment which gives optimal return investment prospects.

Keywords: inflation, interest rates, return, jci, mutual funds, panel data, analysis regression, and correlation.